29 Dec 2022 -
I have been doing a lot of reading and thinking on EVs and the future of transportation. Perhaps some of my observations will be useful to others. (still draft, but wanted to get out there)
Vehicle age on road
The average vehicle age on the road has been increasing for a number of years. It is now over 12 years. With EVs being more expensive than ICE vehicles, one would expect that the average age of vehicles on the road will continue to increase. Except that EV batteries are not likely to last for 12+ years. So the average age of vehicles on the road will likely decrease. Whatever happens there will be some big changes to service and the used vehicle market.
California
California has the most EVs on the road. It is also the state who has been pushing the adoption of EVs longer and harder than others. So it is a good place to look at the future of EVs.
The following chart shows the percentage of new car sales that are EVs (sales) and the percentage of cars on the road that are EVs (install). This model is based on historical EV trends, general car sales trends, car ownership lifetime, and the states objectives to pushing EV adoption.
The model shows that EVs will be 50% of new car sales by 2027 and 80% by 2032. The model also shows that EVs will be 50% of cars on the road by 2035.
I don’t believe the model. My model of the economy, EV charging, vehicle / battery cost, battery lifetime, and performance issues with EVs lead me to believe that EVs sales growth while positive will not be as steep as this diagram indicates. We also won’t likely achieve 100% EV sales in 2035 either. The reality fo the situation though is that even if EVs are only 50% of new car sales in 2035, that is still a huge change to the car market and it will have a huge impact on the economy.
EV cost
Tesla historical sales data shows a flat to 5% a year (due to new models) price drop in nearly 10 years of sales. If this trend continues it would take Tesla about 5 more years to reach the industry average new car sales price. While Tesla is likely to continue to be a EV leader they will be lucky to maintain 50% of the EV market within a few years. In 2021 Tesla had 71% of EV market. In 2022 through Q3 Tesla is expected to have 65% of the EV market.
Battery cost
EV charging
California and the federal government are investing in and encouraging EV charging.
- What happens with fuel stations when EVs are 50% of cars on the road?
- What happens with fuel stations when EVs are 80% of cars on the road?